As the 2024 presidential race intensifies, recent polls reveal surprising trends among Christian voters, suggesting that religious beliefs may play a complex and sometimes counterintuitive role in shaping political preferences.
A survey conducted from September 12-16 by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs found that only 14 percent of U.S. adults say the word "Christian" describes former President Donald Trump "extremely" or "very" well. This figure is particularly striking given Trump's strong support among white evangelical Protestants, a key demographic in his political base.
The poll of 2,028 adults was conducted September 12-16, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Despite Trump's Presbyterian upbringing and later identification as a nondenominational Christian, his religious credentials appear to hold little sway over his most ardent supporters. About 7 in 10 white evangelical Protestants view Trump favorably, yet only about half say he best represents their beliefs. Even more telling, only around 2 in 10 within this group strongly associate the term "Christian" with the former president.
R. Marie Griffith, a religion and politics professor at Washington University in St. Louis, offered insight to the AP into this apparent contradiction. "They really don't care about, is he religious or not," Griffith explained, pointing to a shift in how white evangelicals now approach morality and religion in politics.
This disconnect between personal faith and political support reflects a broader trend in conservative Christian circles. Griffith suggests that many white evangelicals have adopted a worldview that prioritizes political goals over traditional religious values.
Interestingly, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, seems to be making inroads with certain Christian groups. A poll released by EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research showed Harris leading Trump among Catholic voters, with 50.1 percent support compared to Trump's 42.7 percent. This represents a significant shift from previous elections, where Trump performed strongly with Catholic voters.
The poll was conducted from August 28 to August 30 among 1,000 Catholic voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
Harris, who identifies as a Baptist and has diverse religious influences in her background, faces her own challenges in being perceived as Christian. The AP-NORC poll found that only 14 percent of Americans strongly associate the term "Christian" with Harris. However, she fares better among Black Protestants, with 6 in 10 saying she best represents their religious beliefs, though only around 4 in 10 in this group strongly describe her as Christian.
The religious dynamics of the 2024 race are further complicated by Trump's attempts to position himself as the champion of conservative Christian values. At a Turning Point Action (TPA) event in Florida in July, Trump declared, "I love you Christians. I'm a Christian. I love you, get out, you gotta get out and vote."
However, some Christian leaders have expressed concerns about Trump's stance on key issues. Dr. R. Albert Mohler, president of The Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, warned of a "grave danger" during an interview on The New York Times' The Run Up podcast that evangelical voters might stay home on Election Day, potentially impacting Trump's chances.
Meanwhile, Harris is seeing support from unexpected quarters. A group called "Evangelicals for Harris" has begun running social media ads, and thousands have signed a Faithful America petition pledging not to vote for Trump, citing concerns about the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot and the use of "dangerous Holy War rhetoric."
The AP-NORC poll also revealed a general skepticism towards both candidates' honesty and morality. Around one-third of respondents say the words "honest" or "moral" describe Harris extremely or very well, while about 15 percent say the same for Trump.
Newsweek contacted the Trump's spokesperson and Harris' campaign via email on Sunday for comment.
As the campaign progresses, both sides are working to mobilize their religious bases. At the Republican National Convention, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders invoked divine intervention in Trump's favor, while progressive groups like the Black Church PAC are rallying support for Harris.
The religious landscape of the 2024 election is further complicated by President Joe Biden's unprecedented decision to drop out of the race in late July, endorsing Harris as his replacement. As the first woman of color to lead a major party ticket, Harris brings a unique religious background to the race, potentially reshaping traditional voting patterns among religious groups.
In a political climate where personal faith seems increasingly disconnected from voter preferences, candidates face the challenge of navigating a complex terrain where actions and outcomes may trump religious identity in the eyes of many supporters.
As the election approaches, it remains to be seen how these shifting perceptions of faith and morality will ultimately influence voter behavior at the ballot box.